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The Subsidy Ends

Source: Stories by Tim O'Brien on Medium
Published: June 12, 2026 at 7:39 AM

AI tools are burning VC money to give you a deal that can’t last

Tim O'Brien

The day is approaching when the subsidized AI era ends. It hasn’t happened yet. But the signals are already visible if you’re willing to look.

Pricing gets rational

Anthropic released Claude Fable 5 this week, and the pricing said more than the benchmarks. At $10 per million input tokens and $50 per million output tokens, Fable 5 is exactly twice the price of Opus 4.8, which came out two weeks earlier. That’s not a rounding error. That’s a statement.

And the messaging around the launch was just as clear: Fable 5 is included on Claude subscriptions until June 22. After that, it goes to usage credits. Pay for what you use.

Think about that for a second. The most capable model Anthropic has ever released is included in your subscription for about a week. A week. That’s not a subscription benefit. That’s a promotion. And most people don’t sign up for $200 subscriptions expecting promotions— they expect the thing they’re paying for to keep being the thing they’re paying for.

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Everything is Pay-as-you-go (Image Assist from ChatGPT)

This isn’t a temporary promotion — it’s Anthropic telling you that the most capable model they’ve ever released doesn’t fit inside a flat monthly fee. They watched what happened when OpenAI gave…